The United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan and Brazil this week in New York reiterated their promise to lead by example and produce by the end of this year nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aligned with the Paris pact’s objective of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

But they failed to announce any numbers or flesh out what a 1.5C-compatible NDC means for them. Observers keen to understand how the three nations will reconcile a science-based climate plan with their expanding fossil fuel ambitions were left disappointed.

“We witnessed a worrying case of cognitive dissonance,” said Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager with Oil Change International, which campaigns against fossil fuels. “At a time of grave climate urgency, the COP Troika is failing to deliver the leadership and clarity needed to raise climate ambition.”

The Troika has previously indicated that there is no universally accepted definition of what a 1.5°C-aligned climate plan should or should not include. “It’s up to each one to decide,” Brazil’s head of delegation, Liliam Chagas, said at the Bonn climate talks in June, raising fears of “1.5-washing”.

‘Ten tests’ for a 1.5C climate plan

That view is not shared by many climate experts and campaigners who are issuing suggestions for what such an NDC should look like.

A group of leading civil society organisations this week published an open letter that outlines “ten essential tests” to determine whether countries’ plans meet the 1.5C goal – seen as safer than the other, higher ceiling of “well below 2 degrees” set in the Paris Agreement.

The tests outlined in the letter include a commitment to end fossil fuel expansion, detailed and measurable targets both for the whole economy and for specific sectors such as transport, building and agriculture, provisions for wealthier countries to scale up climate finance, and measures to protect natural ecosystems and make food systems greener.

UN climate chief warns of “two-speed” global energy transition

“A lot of the failure or success of [the] Paris [Agreement] is going to be determined in the next eight or nine months as countries put forward their next round of NDCs,” said Alden Meyer, a senior associate at E3G and veteran watcher of the UN climate process. “If these don’t step up and meet the mark, it’s really our last chance… this is a critical moment.”

To limit average temperature rise below 1.5C, scientists with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say global emissions need to peak before 2025, shrink 60% by 2035 from their 2019 level, and continue on a steep downward trajectory, reaching net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide by around mid-century.

Fossil fuels in the spotlight

The next round of updated NDCs, due by next February, should turn the goals agreed at COP28 last year into practice, advocates say. In the energy sector, that means laying out plans to triple renewable energy capacity and double the rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030 – and, crucially, transition away from fossil fuels.

Climate experts and campaigners have stressed that a 1.5C-aligned NDC needs to include an explicit commitment to no new coal, oil and gas exploration, as well as credible targets for slashing existing production and eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.

“Claiming to lead on climate while continuing the expansion of oil, gas and coal production is indefensible at this point,” said Natalie Jones, policy advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development. “Governments need a plan for reducing reliance on fossil fuel production,” she added.

Senegalese banker Ibrahima Cheikh Diong picked to lead new loss and damage fund

Fossil-fuel reduction targets will be closely watched as a litmus test for the ambition of major hydrocarbon producers, including the Troika of COP presidencies. The UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil are set to increase their combined oil and gas production by 33% by 2035, according to a new analysis by Oil Change International.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aims to turn his country into the world’s fourth largest petrostate (it now ranks ninth), opening new extraction frontiers both on land and offshore, including in the Amazon. This plan contrasts with Brazil’s promise to present a new NDC  aligned with the 1.5C temperature goal this year – reaffirmed by Lula himself in his speech at the UN General Assembly this week.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addresses the 79th United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York, U.S., September 24, 2024. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

“As long as the Brazilian government insists on extracting oil and gas, especially in the Amazon, talking about decarbonising the economy and a fair energy transition is a pure exercise in rhetoric,” said Ilan Zugman, Latin America managing director for campaign group 350.org.

Azerbaijan has similarly come under renewed criticism this week with researchers at Climate Action Tracker (CAT) slamming its existing climate goals as “critically insufficient”.

The scientific watchdog said Azerbaijan was among “a tiny group” of countries that had weakened the targets in its latest NDC, published in late 2023, contradicting the Paris Agreement’s requirement that each climate action blueprint should be more ambitious than its predecessor. CAT singled out the Caspian country’s plans to expand fossil fuel production by 30% over the coming decade and its rising methane emissions.

Azerbaijan is now working on a new NDC that should be in line with the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, the government said.

Looking beyond energy

But, while energy is a crucial piece of the puzzle, it is not the only economic sector that needs a dramatic transformation in order to limit global warming to 1.5C. Agriculture, food production, industry and transport all contribute a large share of greenhouse gas emissions.

Experts say that spelling out specific emissions reduction targets for each sector can help guide policy-making across different government departments and attract larger investments.

COP29 aims to boost battery storage and grids for renewables, as pledges proliferate

E3G’s Meyer told journalists that “a robust consultation and transparent engagement process” are also key to building a 1.5C-aligned NDC. “If you’re going to get buy-in to implementation of the NDCs on the ground – which is the real key to reducing emissions – you need all those sectors engaged and backing the plan,” he added.

Mike Hemsley, deputy director at the Energy Transitions Commission think-tank, told Climate Home that sectoral targets will also play a pivotal role in engaging the private sector, alongside roadmaps and policy packages to implement them. “There’s increasing recognition that if you don’t have that in there, you’re not going to actually realise the ambition you set out in the NDCs,” he said.

‘Creative accounting’ trap

With goals only as good as the measures taken to meet them, a significant gap remains between the already-deficient set of national climate targets on paper and action in the real world.

Civil society groups say that governments need to outline how they are planning to hit their NDC targets in a clear and transparent way without resorting to “creative accounting”, as CAT warns.

A major sticking point is the reliance on forests and other carbon sinks to bring down emissions, because of the complex calculations involved and the unpredictable risk of carbon being released back into the atmosphere if, for instance, trees are decimated by a forest fire.

Australia, for example, has been accused by CAT of creating an “illusion of progress” towards its NDC targets by constantly revising its carbon sink assessment upwards and allowing more room for increased fossil fuel emissions.

E3G’s Meyer is sceptical that, despite the promises of 1.5C -aligned NDCs, countries will step up with the level of ambition needed – and said the task for COP30 host Brazil next year should be to encourage countries to work out how to fill the gaps.

“We need to see [the next NDCs] as a floor not a ceiling, and say what more can we do to supercharge ambition,” he said.

(Reporting by Matteo Civillini and Megan Rowling; editing by Megan Rowling)

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Simon Stiell told investors at an event in New York that the efforts of many developing countries to adopt more renewables like solar and wind power “are hamstrung by sky-high costs of capital… or mired in spiralling debt crises”.

Because the “mega-trend” in clean energy is occurring unevenly, most investors are missing out on “gigantic, unrealised opportunities” outside of wealthy countries, he added, warning that this also poses a major threat to global action to curb climate change and avoid its worst impacts.

“I’ll be blunt: if more developing economies don’t see more of this growing deluge of climate investment, we will quickly entrench a dangerous two-speed global transition,” Stiell said.

UN climate chief calls for “exponential changes” to boost investment in Africa

Such an imbalance is both “unacceptable” and “self-defeating” for all economies, he emphasised. It would make halving global emissions by 2030 to keep warming in check “near impossible”, he explained, as well as causing havoc in international supply chains as extreme weather bites.

The disruptions experienced by businesses during the COVID19 pandemic “will seem like a minor hiccup compared to what an unchecked climate crisis will inflict” in an interdependent world economy, Stiell warned. “If a two-speed global transition sets in, ultimately everyone loses, and loses badly,” he added.

IEA weighs in

A report issued on Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA), showing how to meet the energy transition goals agreed at last year’s COP28 climate summit, noted that advanced economies and China account for more than four out of every five dollars invested in clean energy since the Paris Agreement was signed in late 2015.

The IEA called for stronger and more stable policies to attract private investment in clean energy in other regions, together with larger, better-targeted international support spurred partly by a new climate finance goal due to be agreed at COP29 this November.

The agency also pointed out that, although governments are worried about how to make the energy transition socially acceptable, globally they are still spending nine times more making fossil fuels cheaper than on subsidising clean energy for consumers.

COP29 aims to boost battery storage and grids for renewables, as pledges proliferate

The report said that the COP28 goal of tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030 is within reach – but meeting it will not automatically mean that more renewable electricity will clean up power systems, lower costs for consumers and slash fossil fuel use.

Achieving those aims will require complementary efforts to enable clean electrification – including building and modernising 25 million kilometres of electricity grids by 2030 and adding 1,500 gigawatts (GW) of energy storage capacity by that year, largely with batteries.

Fast-tracking a green future

With businesses and financiers gathered in New York for the annual Climate Week NYC, alongside leaders attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), international agencies and green groups emphasised the need for concerted action by the public and private sectors to put internationally agreed energy targets into practice.

Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, said the goals set at COP28 could put the global energy sector “on a fast track towards a more secure, affordable and sustainable future”. “To ensure the world doesn’t miss this huge opportunity, the focus must shift rapidly to implementation,” he added.

Other organisations also outlined key ways to make this happen. Mission 2025 – a coalition of businesses, sub-national governments and researchers, among others – appealed to governments to set “investment-positive policies” that can provide confidence to mobilise large-scale finance for the energy transition.

Using data from the Energy Transitions Commission, an international think-tank, Mission 2025 identified three such policies that have already worked in industralised countries and some large developing economies to help boost finance for renewables and electric vehicles.

It recommended fixing gigawatt targets for renewable energy deployment at the national level as the UK and India have done for example; derisking investment in renewable energy – by offering support such as competitive long-term contracts or tax credits – as in Europe, the India, China and the United States; and setting a date of 2035 or earlier to end sales of petrol and diesel passenger vehicles, as the European Union has done.

Global push to triple renewables requires responsible mining of minerals

Mission 2025 said these policies should be extended to other places, and could roughly double today’s investment in clean power and electric vehicles to $1 trillion of the $3.5 trillion needed annually for the energy sector to play its part in limiting warming to 1.5C.

Mike Hemsley, deputy director of the Energy Transitions Commission, told Climate Home these policies are as cheap as their fossil fuel equivalents, so there is no net cost to countries from implementing them as part of the updated national climate plans governments are now preparing – including for lower-income and emerging economies.

“We hope that this can give them some confidence to say if we set ambitious policy, we can attract private investment, realise some of our own goals and not necessarily cost ourselves anything – all for the good of the climate,” he said, adding that strong policies can also help lower investment risk in developing countries.

Renewables cheaper than fossil fuels

Research released on Tuesday by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) at the Global Renewables Summit during UNGA showed that with renewable power capacity additions setting a record of 473 gigawatts in 2023, four-fifths of newly commissioned, utility-scale renewable projects had lower costs than their fossil fuel-fired alternatives.

Power from solar photovoltaic (PV) panels, it found, has seen its cost plummet to around $0.04 per kilowatt hour in just one year, making it 56% cheaper than fossil fuel and nuclear options in 2023. Overall, the renewable power deployed globally since 2000 has saved up to $409 billion in fuel costs in the power sector, IRENA added.

“Thanks to low-cost renewables in the global market, policy makers have an immediate solution at hand to reduce fossil fuels dependency, limit the economic and social damage of carbon-intensive energy use, drive economic development and harness energy security benefits,” IRENA’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said in a statement.

(Reporting by Megan Rowling, editing by Joe Lo)

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Mafalda Duarte, the Portuguese climate finance specialist who heads the fund’s South Korea-based secretariat, says that after her first year in the job, she’s still discovering gems in the portfolio.

The GCF “is delivering many interesting things that are actually not known”, she told Climate Home – from its large equity investments that support entrepreneurs to a pioneering green credit guarantee company and a blended finance platform to lend to local governments.

“Because we haven’t placed enough focus on impact – and assessing the impact and assessing results – we are not able to have that information and communicate it,” she said in an exclusive interview setting out her plans to thrust the world’s biggest multilateral climate fund into the spotlight with the launch of a new organisational strategy.

Operations at the GCF’s head office in the city of Songdo are being overhauled to better track the benefits of its support for people on the frontlines of the climate crisis, to strengthen its investment partnerships, and to offer a more efficient service to the organisations that deploy its money on the ground.

The fund now has a network of around 250 partners – ranging from large UN agencies to environment ministries, banks and green NGOs – that are implementing climate programmes in some 130 countries, mainly in the Global South.

Cheaper and faster

Ever since the GCF – set up under the UN climate process – started operating about a decade ago, a key ask from these partners has been reducing the costs and the time it takes to do business with the fund, especially those based in the poorest countries with limited administrative capacity.

“That is always the primary topic of debate,” noted Duarte, who previously ran the multilateral Climate Investment Funds.

It’s an issue the GCF has made some progress in addressing. It now takes a median of four and a half months from getting a project approved by the board to the first pay-out of cash for the work to start – down from 14 months in 2022.

UN climate chief calls for “exponential changes” to boost investment in Africa

This July, the fund set a new record with a locally-led adaptation project for mountain farmers in Bhutan and another to strengthen watershed ecosystem management and food security in Malawi receiving money 15 days after being greenlit by the board.

Duarte told Climate Home the fund is now looking at whittling down the period from a project’s concept note to its approval from over two years to nine months by next year.

Speeding up the project process is one pillar of the executive director’s new vision which she launched last September during the UN Climate Ambition Summit in New York, just weeks after starting the job.

“50 by 30” vision

Dubbed “50 by 30”, the strategy aims to enable the GCF to efficiently manage $50 billion by 2030. Since 2014, the fund has secured total pledges of $33.1 billion – of which it has so far received $18.5 billion.

Other key goals of Duarte’s vision include boosting help for the most vulnerable countries like Somalia, increasing participation by the private sector, and shifting emphasis from one-off projects to programmes that secure wider change.

“I think there was a general understanding in the organisation that there was a need for change and for reform,” its executive director told Climate Home.

When Duarte took over, the GCF was merging from a rocky few years under previous management which led to whistleblowers exposing a range of problems – from a lack of integrity in vetting projects to a toxic workplace culture marred by sexism and racism. The fund responded by strengthening its internal procedures for handling grievances.

In Somalia, Green Climate Fund tests new approach for left-out communities

With those problems behind it, the GCF is now concentrating on getting more bang for its buck at the community level where climate finance needs are rising fast in line with the effects of extreme weather and rising seas.

To that end, the fund is reorganising its 300 staff into four regional teams – covering Africa, Asia-Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia – which will offer an integrated service to countries, from programme design to delivery.

GCF Executive Director Mafalda Duarte (right) visits a GCF-supported coffee farm in Kenya, September 2023. (Photo: Green Climate Fund / Andy Ball)

From this month, 14 management-level hires are coming on board to lead Duarte’s twin drives to deliver greater real-world impact and win more co-investment from the private sector.

It’s an approach, she said, that’s needed to position the GCF as a “partner of choice” in a troubled world where international climate funds must compete for scarce resources from donor governments juggling multiple pressures.

“With the geopolitical context that we are facing globally, unless we see some shifts, it’s a challenging task to mobilise significant money,” said Duarte.

Bigger share of COP29 badges for Global South NGOs upsets rich-country groups

She has ideas for how to do that – whether it’s working more strategically with philanthropies like the Rockefeller Foundation or securing a share of new global climate levies being considered on activities such as fossil fuel production, aviation and financial trading.

“What I do want is GCF to be an institution that can deliver at scale, efficiently and with impact so that it becomes clear that it’s a key mechanism to deliver resources – whether they come from those [new] fiscal tools or they continue to come from state budgets,” Duarte said.

The GCF estimates that its projects to date will help 1 billion people become more resilient to climate change and avoid emissions equivalent to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Trump risk

For its second replenishment in 2023, the Green Climate Fund secured commitments of $12.8 billion from predominantly wealthy governments – its largest fundraising round to date – but that includes $3 billion from the United States, which has yet to deliver $1 billion of an earlier $3 billion pledge.

The White House struggles to persuade a Republican-led Congress to stump up money for the GCF at the best of times – but should Donald Trump be elected as its next inhabitant in November, all bets are off. During his first stint as president, the climate-sceptic Republican criticised the GCF harshly and delivered nothing.

Duarte admits the outcome of the US election could be a threat to the GCF’s bank balance – and stressed the importance of being prepared for any donors ducking their promises.

“It is a risk; it is a risk that we have seen before as well – and to be honest, it’s a risk that I don’t know if we will not see more of given political dynamics,” she added.

Donor priorities

That means Duarte’s new management team have a major task on their hands to persuade both existing contributors and new ones – which could include richer emerging economies, private foundations or venture capitalists – to pour billions more into its coffers this decade.

Its boss argues that wealthy governments should raise their ambition in backing the GCF – but believes the onus is on the climate community to show why putting money into efforts to cut planet-heating emissions and protect people from global warming in vulnerable parts of the world is a wise investment.

“There are significant macroeconomic and geopolitical constraints that countries are facing – but we also know that they mobilise funding for what they consider to be priorities,” Duarte said. “So I think the goal is for all of us to continue to make the case that [climate] needs to be more of a priority when countries think of allocating public resources.”

(Reporting by Megan Rowling; editing by Matteo Civillini)

This article was updated after publication to clarify comments on the US election, philanthropies and GCF disbursement timing.

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Calling for global action to limit the devastating consequences, the head of the United Nations said “billions of people are facing an extreme heat epidemic – wilting under increasingly deadly heatwaves”.

Extreme-heat events have been getting more frequent, intense and longer-lasting in recent decades as a result of human-made climate change.

Guterres’ appeal comes as the record for the world’s hottest day was broken twice on consecutive days this week, according to Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. Monday beat Sunday, with the global average surface air temperature reaching 17.16 Celsius, as parts of the world sweltered through fierce heatwaves from the Mediterranean to Russia and Canada.

Guterres said the UN had just received preliminary data indicating that Tuesday “was in the same range”, which would make a third hottest straight day on record, if confirmed.

In a speech, he noted that heat – driven by “fossil fuel-charged, human-induced climate change” – is estimated to kill almost half a million people a year, about 30 times more than tropical cyclones.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks during the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, December 1, 2023. COP28/Christophe Viseux/Handout via REUTERS

This year alone, extreme heat struck highly vulnerable communities across the Sahel region, killed at least 1,300 pilgrims in Mecca during Hajj and shut down schools across Asia and Africa affecting more than 80 million children.

“And we know it’s going to get worse. Extreme heat is the new abnormal,” Guterres added in his speech to journalists at UN headquarters in New York.

The Secretary-General’s “call for action” brings together ten specialised UN agencies for the first time in an urgent and concerted push to strengthen international cooperation in addressing extreme heat.

Focus on most vulnerable

Guterres listed four areas where greater efforts could be made to keep people, societies and economies safer from the negative consequences of rising global temperatures.

He emphasised the importance of “caring for the most vulnerable” – with those at greatest risk including poor people in urban areas, pregnant women, people with disabilities, the elderly, children, those who are sick and people who are displaced from their homes.

Households living in poverty often live in substandard homes without access to cooling, he added, appealing for a boost in access to low-carbon cooling and expanded use of natural measures – which include planting trees for shade – and better urban design, alongside a ramp-up of heat warning systems.

Graphic from Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change

Workers also need more protection, he said, as a new report from the International Labour Organization warned that over 70 percent of the global workforce – 2.4 billion people – are now at high risk of extreme heat, especially in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Arab States.

The UN is calling on governments to urgently review laws and regulations on occupational safety and health to integrate provisions for extreme heat, including the right to refuse working in extreme hot weather.

Energy transition and adaptation

A third area targeted by the UN for action is making economies and societies better able to withstand heat, through stronger infrastructure, more resilient crops, and efforts to ease the pressure on health systems and water supplies.

“Countries, cities, and sectors need comprehensive, tailored Heat Action Plans, based on the best science and data,” Guterres said.

Lastly, the UN chief urged stepped-up action to “fight the disease”, by phasing out fossil fuels “fast and fairly” including no new coal projects, with the aim of limiting global warming to 1.5C – a goal nearly 200 governments signed up to in the 2015 Paris Agreement.

“I must call out the flood of fossil fuel expansion we are seeing in some of the world’s wealthiest countries,” he emphasised. “In signing such a surge of new oil and gas licenses, they are signing away our future.”

The United States, Canada, Australia, Norway and the UK have issued two-thirds of the global number of oil and gas licences since 2020, according to research published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development this week.

‘Still time to act’

Commenting on the UN’s call to action, Alan Dangour, director of climate and health at Wellcome, a UK-based science foundation, noted that people working outside in physical jobs and those who cannot afford to adapt to rising heat are particularly exposed – but the effects are far broader.

“The levels of heat we now routinely see around the world put every part of society under extreme pressure, directly harming our health while also affecting food and water security and much of our vital infrastructures,” he said in a statement.

Speaking to journalists on Thursday, scientists convened by Wellcome said there are positive measures that can be taken to combat the problem of extreme heat, which can also bring wider social benefits.

UAE’s ALTÉRRA invests in fund backing fossil gas despite “climate solutions” pledge

For example, they explained that using community facilities as cooling centres can offer older people a place to chat or play cards, tackling social isolation and heat stress at the same time. Or adding shades with solar panels to market stalls can help women traders keep working on hot days while also providing free electricity for their businesses.

“There is still time for concerted action to save lives from the impacts of climate change, but we can no longer afford to delay,” Dangour said.

A construction worker drinks water while working on a building during hot weather in Pristina, Kosovo, June 19, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Valdrin Xhemaj)

The UN’s call for action points out that existing tools to reduce the devastating consequences of extreme heat could be deployed with large and far-reaching effects. Guterres said the good news is that “there are solutions… that we can save lives and limit its impact”.

For example, a global scale-up of heat health warning systems could save more than 98,000 lives every year, according to the World Health Organization. And the rollout of occupational safety and health measures could avoid $361 billion a year in medical and other costs, the ILO has estimated.

The UN chief urged a “huge acceleration of all the dimensions of climate action” as global warming is currently outpacing efforts to fight it. That could start to change, he added, as heatwaves, impacts on public health and disasters such as Canada’s wildfires are now hitting the richest countries as well as poorer ones.

“The heat is being felt by those that have decision-making capacity – and that is my hope,” he said.

(Reporting and editing by Matteo Civillini and Megan Rowling)

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In the closing session of the two-week talks on Thursday evening, many countries expressed their disappointment and frustration at the lack of any outcome on the Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme (MWP), noting the urgency of stepping up efforts to curb greenhouse gas pollution this decade.

The co-chairs of the talks said those discussions had not reached any conclusion and would need to resume at the annual climate summit in Azerbaijan in November, unleashing a stream of disgruntled interventions from both developed and developing countries.

Samoa’s lead negotiator Anne Rasmussen, speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), emphasised that “we really can’t afford these failures”. “We have failed to show the world that we are responding with the purpose and urgency required to limit warming to 1.5 degrees,” she said.

Anne Rasmussen of Samoa, speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Photo: IISD/ENB – Kiara Worth

Governments, from Latin America to Africa and Europe, lamented the lack of progress on the MWP because of its central role in keeping warming to the 1.5C temperature ceiling enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

Current policies to cut emissions are forecast to lead to warming of 2.7C, even as the world is already struggling with worsening floods, droughts, heatwaves and rising sea levels at global average temperatures around 1.3C higher than pre-industrial times.

Mitigation a taboo topic?

Despite the clear need to act fast, a deep sense of mistrust seeped into talks on the MWP in Bonn, with negotiators disagreeing fundamentally over its direction, according to sources in the room.

Developed countries and some developing ones said that the Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries (LMDCs), led primarily by Saudi Arabia and China, as well as some members of the African Group, had refused to engage constructively in the discussions.

“The reason is that they fear this would put pressure on them to keep moving away from fossil fuels,” an EU delegate told Climate Home.

Bonn bulletin: Fossil fuel transition left homeless

Bolivia’s Diego Pacheco, speaking on behalf of the LMDCs, rejected that view in the final plenary session, while describing the atmosphere in the MWP talks as “strange and shocking”. He also accused developed countries of trying to bury data showing their emissions will rise rather than fall over the course of this decade.

The EU and Switzerland said it was incomprehensible that a body charged with cutting greenhouse gas emissions had not even been allowed to discuss them.

“Mitigation must not be taboo as a topic,” said Switzerland’s negotiator, adding that otherwise the outcome and credibility of the COP29 summit would be at risk.

Rows over process

Before MWP negotiations broke down in Bonn, its co-facilitators – Kay Harrison of New Zealand and Carlos Fuller of Belize – had made a last-ditch attempt to rescue some semblance of progress.

They produced draft conclusions calling for new inputs ahead of COP29 and an informal note summarising the diverging views aired during the fraught exchanges. For many delegates, the adoption of those documents would have provided a springboard for more meaningful discussions in Baku.

But the LMDC and Arab groups refused to consider this, arguing that the co-facilitators had no mandate to produce them and calling their legitimacy into question – a claim rebutted by the UN climate secretariat, according to observers. Frantic efforts to find common ground ultimately came to nothing.

A session of the Mitigation Work Programme in Bonn. Photo: IISD/ENB – Kiara Worth

Fernanda de Carvalho, climate and energy policy head for green group WWF, said the MWP discussions must advance if the world is to collectively reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 from 2019 levels, as scientists say is needed.

The MWP should be focused on supporting countries to deliver stronger national climate action plans (NDCs) – due by early next year – that set targets through to 2035, she said.

“Instead, we saw [government] Parties diverging way more than converging on hard discussions that never made it beyond process,” she added.

‘Collective amnesia’

Some developing countries, including the Africa Group, pushed back against what they saw as efforts by rich nations to force them to make bigger cuts in emissions while ducking their own responsibilities to move first and provide more finance to help poorer countries adopt clean energy.

Brazil – which will host the COP30 summit in 2025 – said the MWP was the main channel for the talks to be able to find solutions to put into practice the agreement struck at COP28 to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair way.

But to enable that, “we have to create a safe environment of trust that will leverage it as a cooperative laboratory”, he said, instead of the “courthouse” it has become “where we accuse and judge each other”.

Observers in Bonn pointed to the absence of discussions on implementing the COP28 deal on fossil fuels, which was hailed last December as “historic”.

“It seems like we have collective amnesia,” veteran watcher Alden Meyer, a senior associate at think-tank E3G, told journalists. “We’ve forgotten that we made that agreement. It’s taboo to talk about it in these halls.”

‘Detour on the road to Baku’

After the exchange of views, UN Climate Change executive secretary Simon Stiell noted that the Bonn talks had taken “modest steps forward” on issues like the global goal on adaptation, increased transparency of climate action and fixing the rules for a new global carbon market.

“But we took a detour on the road to Baku. Too many issues were left unresolved. Too many items are still on the table,” he added.

The closing plenary of the Bonn Climate Change Conference. Photo: Lucia Vasquez / UNFCCC

Another key area where the talks failed to make much progress was on producing clear options for ministers to negotiate a new post-2025 climate finance goal, as developed countries refused to discuss dollar amounts as demanded by the Africa and Arab groups, among others.

Bonn talks on climate finance goal end in stalemate on numbers

Developing nations also complained about this in the final session, while others expressed their concern that a separate track of the negotiations on scientific research had failed to address the topic in a rigorous enough manner.

In his closing speech, Stiell reminded countries that “we must uphold the science”, and urged them to accelerate their efforts to find common ground on key issues well ahead of COP29.

The next opportunities to move forward on the new finance goal – expected as the main outcome from the Baku summit – will be a “retreat” of heads of delegations in July followed by a technical meeting in October, including a high-level ministerial dialogue on the issue.

But several observers told Climate Home that highly contentious issues – such as the size of the funding pot and the list of donors – are beyond the remit of negotiators and are unlikely to be resolved until the political heavyweights, including ministers, take them up in Azerbaijan in November.

Rising costs of climate crisis

“Business-as-usual is a recipe for failure, on climate finance, and on many other fronts, in humanity’s climate fight,” Stiell said. “We can’t keep pushing this year’s issues off into the next year. The costs of the climate crisis – for every nation’s people and economy – are only getting worse.”

Mohamed Adow, director of Kenya-based energy and climate think-tank Power Shift Africa, warned that “multiple factors are setting us up for a terrible shock at COP29″, saying this “ticking disaster threatens to undermine” the NDCs and in turn the 1.5C warming limit.

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In comments posted on X, formerly Twitter, Adow called for justice for those dying from the impacts of climate change such as extreme heat in India and Sudan in recent days, arguing that climate finance remains “a vital part in securing a safe and secure future for us all”.

But, he said, Bonn did not deliver a beacon of hope for vulnerable people. “Developing countries are expected to slay the climate dragon with invisible swords, having gotten zero assurances on the long-term finance they need,” he added.

(Reporting by Megan Rowling and Matteo Civillini, editing by Joe Lo)

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Their failure to meet the goal on time has been a sore point in the UN climate talks, fuelling distrust between wealthy governments and poorer countries, which have struggled to cover the cost of switching to cleaner energy and adapting to worsening climate change impacts.

According to the new data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), developed countries provided and mobilised $115.9 billion in climate finance for developing countries in 2022, up from $89.6 billion in 2021.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, a former Australian finance minister, said “exceeding” the annual commitment was “an important and symbolic achievement which goes some way towards making up for the two-year delay” and “should help build trust”.

The year-to-year increase of around 30% was the largest to date and was driven by significant funding increases from multilateral development banks – which contributed the most at $50.6 billion – individual governments and private finance mobilised by using public money to reduce investment risk.

Climate finance analysts criticised the quality of climate finance and the way the OECD calculates the figures.

Harjeet Singh, a veteran climate justice activist, said the process of providing and accounting for climate finance “is riddled with ambiguity and inadequacies” – a complaint long echoed by developing countries, which have called for more clarity and transparency on how the numbers are worked out.

“Much of the funding is repackaged as loans rather than grants and is often intertwined with existing aid, blurring the lines of true financial assistance,” said Singh.

The OECD report showed that in 2022, as in previous years, public climate finance mainly took the form of loans, which accounted for 69% or $63.6 billion. Not all of this lending was concessional, some was on market terms.

Grants, by contrast, made up just 28% of the total at $25.6 billion, with equity investments far smaller at $2.4 billion.

Development aid re-labelled?

Climate finance experts have also raised concerns over donor countries repurposing existing aid flows to meet the $100-billion target. A recent analysis by the Center for Global Development (CGD), a Washington-based think-tank, estimated that over a third of the money provided by developed countries in 2022 came from existing aid pots.

“A significant part of the increase is due to providers stretching, redirecting, and re-labelling existing development finance,” said Ian Mitchell, senior policy fellow at CGD and one of the report’s authors.

In February, an independent watchdog found the UK had counted an additional £1.7 billion ($2.15 billion) towards its £11.6-billion climate finance target without giving any more money to vulnerable countries, mainly by re-badging other forms of aid as it sought to counter fiscal pressures related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The way in which climate finance contributions by donor countries are counted and tracked will be part of negotiations this year on a new finance goal set to be agreed at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan in November.

The new collective quantified goal (NCQG) for finance is the most important decision expected to be taken at this year’s COP and will replace the current $100-billion commitment, due to expire in 2025.

Experts believe an ambitious deal can play a crucial role in getting developing countries, especially the poorest ones, to commit to stronger action on emissions and adaptation as they draft their new national climate plans due in early 2025.

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Melanie Robinson, global climate, economics and finance director at the World Resources Institute, said filling the funding gap for poorer nations should be “the top priority” for the NCQG negotiations at COP29 but success will hinge on more than just securing a much larger top-line dollar amount.

‘Progress on adaptation finance’

Alongside simmering tensions over a push by wealthy nations to expand the pool of donor countries, and differing views on whether the new goal should include wider sources of climate finance, the most vulnerable countries have called for a specific target for adaptation funding.

Finance to help countries adapt their economies and societies to fiercer heatwaves, droughts, storms and floods, as well as rising seas, has always lagged far behind investment in clean energy and other measure to cut emissions – even as those climate impacts accelerate faster than scientists expected.

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Under pressure at the COP26 climate talks in 2021, developed countries urged each other to at least double their provision of adaptation finance to developing nations by 2025 from the roughly $19 billion they gave in 2019.

This week, the OECD figures showed that at the halfway point in 2022, adaptation funding from developed nations rose to $28.9 billion – the highest ever – with an additional $3.5 billion mobilised from the private sector.

The Paris-based watchdog said progress towards meeting the target “has been made and needs to be maintained”.

Activist Singh said climate-vulnerable people and ecosystems needed rich nations to urgently step up and deliver “real, substantial financial support”.

“It’s not just about the numbers; it’s about integrity and genuine support,” he added. “As we stand today, the financial needs of developing countries for transitioning away from fossil fuels and dealing with climate impacts have skyrocketed into the trillions.”

(Reporting by Megan Rowling and Matteo Civillini; editing by Joe Lo)

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But the money pledged still falls short of the $4 billion a year needed for the rest of this decade to wean poor African households off traditional dirty fuels including charcoal, kerosene and firewood, while climate campaigners criticised efforts to switch them to fossil gas.

Countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and India have made progress in recent years, in line with a global goal to provide clean cooking for all by 2030. Yet four in five Africans still use highly polluting cooking methods – around half of the 2.3 billion people who lack clean options worldwide, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the summit his organisation’s aim of making 2024 “a turning point” for clean cooking was being realised.

“It’s now or never,” he said, adding that the IEA will track the commitments made in Paris and share the results with the international community in a year’s time. “We will follow it as if it is our own money,” he emphasised.

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Separately, the African Development Bank (AfDB) confirmed an earlier pledge, first made at the COP28 climate summit last year, to mobilise around $2 billion for clean cooking over the next 10 years, earmarking 20 percent of its energy finance for that purpose.

Speaking in Paris, AfDB president, Akinwumi A. Adesina, said his own eyesight had been damaged by smoke from cooking fires during his childhood in Nigeria, while a friend and members of her family had died in an accident after she was sold petrol instead of kerosene as cooking fuel.

“Why do we let things like that happen?” Adesina asked, adding that enabling clean cooking is a matter of “human dignity, fairness and justice for women”. “It is about life itself,” he said.

Experts have long pointed to the health damage to women and children from carbon monoxide and black soot emitted by cooking over open fires or with basic stoves. Dirty cooking contributes to 3.7 million premature deaths annually, according to the IEA, with women and children most at risk from respiratory and cardiovascular ailments linked to indoor air pollution.

Ahead of the Summit on Clean Cooking in Africa this week in Paris, some climate and gender activists pointed to the small number of African women represented at the gathering – who they said accounted for less than a fifth of registered participants.

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Janet Milongo, coordinator of renewable energy for Climate Action Network International, said the event was biased “towards the continuation of the colonial, patriarchal representation of the continent”.

Speeches were made largely by male leaders of governments and companies, with the notable exception of Tanzania’s president, Samia Suluhu Hassan, and Damilola Ogunbiyi, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Sustainable Energy for All.

Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (left) with the presidents of Sierra Leone, Tanzania and  Togo, the prime minister of Norway; H.E. Maroš Šefčovič, Executive Vice President of the European Green Deal and Akinwumi A. Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group at the Clean Cooking Summit for Africa in Paris, May 14, 2024 (Photo: International Energy Agency)

Clean cooking ‘opportunity’ in NDCs

Ogunbiyi, who is Nigerian and has worked on clean energy policy for the government, said her country had made a big effort on solar electrification but had forgotten about clean cooking.

“We can’t make that mistake again,” she said, calling for clean cooking to be a key part of African governments’ investment plans for their energy transition.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell urged more governments to seize the opportunity to include measures to boost clean cooking in the next updates to their national climate action plans (NDCs) due by early next year.

As of December last year, only 60 NDCs included one or more measures that explicitly target clean cooking, such as Nepal’s goal to ensure that by 2030 half of households use electric stoves as their main mode of cooking and Rwanda promising to disseminate modern efficient cookstoves to 80% of its rural population and 50% of people in cities by that date.

Stiell noted that planet-heating emissions from dirty cooking methods are “significant”, amounting to about 2% of the global total – the equivalent of emissions from the aviation and shipping sectors combined.

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He said the world has the technology to shift people onto modern, cleaner sources of energy and cut emissions in the process, calling it “low-hanging fruit”.

Dymphna van der Lans, CEO of the Clean Cooking Alliance, a global partnership of organisations working on the issue, said it was important to raise awareness not just about the scale of the problem – but to ensure people understand it is an issue that can be solved.

“The technologies exist – they are out there, there are fantastic companies providing these fuels and solutions and services to these customers that actually can be deployed immediately… and reach the populations in Africa,” she told Climate Home after the summit.

LPG conundrum

On stage in Paris, companies ranging from fossil fuel giants such as Total and Shell to smaller manufacturers of cookstoves said they would expand their efforts to reach new customers with more efficient stoves running on modern energy, including liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), bioethanol and electricity.

While there is widespread consensus over ending the use of firewood and charcoal – which contribute to deforestation – there is less agreement over which fuels should replace them.

Efforts to build new distribution networks for LPG – a form of fossil fuel gas – are particularly controversial. At the summit on Tuesday, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said his company wants to increase its 40 million African LPG customers to 100 million and will invest more to boost its LPG production capacity in East Africa.

Pouyanné said there is a need to make LPG cooking affordable – noting that the $30 upfront investment required for a stove and gas canister is too high for most people – which could be done through “pay as you cook” loans.

Some international development agencies that work on the ground to help poor households access clean cooking – including Practical Action – support the use of LPG as a “transitional step” towards clean cooking where options like electricity or ethanol are not available.

“Our primary objective is to ensure people, especially women and children, have access to the best possible solutions which don’t compromise their health and that in the long term aren’t contributing to the worsening climate crisis,” said Practical Action CEO Sarah Roberts.

In the IEA’s “least-cost, realistic scenario” to reach universal clean cooking this decade, LPG remains the primary solution, representing nearly half of households gaining access, while electric cooking is the main option for just one in eight homes.

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The IEA’s analysis shows that this strategy, centred on LPG, would drive up emissions by 0.1 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2030. But that would be more than offset by reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from switching away from firewood, charcoal and inefficient stoves, resulting in a net reduction of 1.5Gt of CO2 equivalent by 2030.

Net greenhouse gas emissions annual savings from clean cooking access in the IEA Access for All scenario by 2030 (in Mt CO2-eq) (Source: IEA)

Red = Combustion; Orange = Avoided combustion; Yellow = Unsustainable harvesting; Green = Net savings          

At the summit, Togo’s president Faure Gnassingbé described LPG as “really the way forward” for clean cooking, and said more production capacity was needed in Africa. He added that ESG investors – which normally apply green and ethical standards – should adjust their environmental criteria so they can back LPG cooking projects despite it being a fossil fuel.

“We should be clear-headed and not open up to sterile debates on this issue,” Gnassingbé told the summit.

Some climate justice activists disagreed, criticising high-level backing for fossil gas as a clean cooking solution.

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, a Nairobi-based energy and climate think-tank, said on social media platform X that the need for clean cooking alternatives “is used by many African politicians as an excuse for building gas infrastructure” which is intended to develop an export industry and never reaches poorer households.

Here’s my response to yesterday’s summit on Clean Cooking in Africa & the declaration issued by #IEA.

“This declaration is a lazy & misguided statement which seems to rely on the private sector to use gas as a solution to this problem.

However, there’s no evidence that will…

— Mohamed Adow (@mohadow) May 15, 2024

He said the money raised at the summit should be channelled instead into high-efficiency, low-cost electric cookers for African women, which could be powered by renewable energy.

Carbon finance principles

Another controversial way of promoting clean cooking, backed by the IEA-hosted summit, is by developing and selling carbon credits for the emissions savings from new technologies and fuels.

The IEA said that around 15% of the total amount pledged in Paris would come via carbon finance, with the proceeds from selling offsets helping subsidise customers’ access to clean cooking.

But Climate Home found in an investigation last year that the methodologies used to calculate emissions reductions from more efficient cookstoves in India had overstated their greenhouse gas savings.

To counter such problems, the Clean Cooking Alliance announced a new set of “Principles for Responsible Carbon Finance in Clean Cooking” in Paris, backed by 100 organisations working in the space.

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The voluntary principles, which aim to build confidence in carbon markets for clean cooking, say project claims should be evidence-based, case-specific and substantiated, and their benefits should be transparent. The alliance is also working with the UN climate secretariat on a new methodology for clean cooking carbon credits which it hopes will be ready this year.

Van der Lans said the goal was to strengthen the quality and integrity of clean-cooking carbon credits in line with the latest science, to achieve a higher, fairer price that fully reflects the work being done to protect forests by moving away from charcoal and firewood.

“Everybody within the clean cooking ecosystem is signing up to these principles,” she noted – from banks to carbon credit verification agencies and companies selling the technology.

“That is a good signal that we’re doing the right things and we’re moving this market in the right direction,” she added.

(Reporting by Megan Rowling; editing by Joe Lo)

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In response to the review by the Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI), climate and development groups accused the UK government of using accounting tricks to meet its climate finance goal for the five-year period from 2021-2026 after pandemic-related fiscal pressures led it to slash its overall aid budget.

The ICAI assessment said the government had “moved the goalposts” by changing the way meeting the target is calculated and including all eligible aid such as a 30% share of humanitarian funding in the 10% of countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Reaching the £11.6-billion goal would be “challenging”, the ICAI added, with 55% of that amount still to be spent in the last two years of the commitment, including up to £3.8 billion due in the final year following a 2024 general election.

Last summer, climate negotiators from developing countries told Climate Home News media reports that Britain would break its flagship international climate finance pledge were “disappointing” and undermined trust, although the government denied it would miss the goal.

In confidential government documents made public this month during a court case, civil servants again warned of “material risks” to meeting the commitment.

A spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), the ministry that oversees the aid budget, said on Thursday the government welcomed the ICAI review and confirmed the UK “remains on track” to meet its international climate finance commitment.

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Chief Commissioner Tamsyn Barton, who led the review, said the ICAI was “concerned that by altering its accounting methods and identifying existing spend as International Climate Finance to include that funding in the total, rather than providing new money, the UK is offering less additional assistance than was originally promised”.

Aid groups and opposition politicians were highly critical of the move by the Conservative government, warning it risked losing its international climate policy leadership by not providing more support for those on the frontlines of worsening extreme weather and rising seas.

“The government’s sums on climate finance simply don’t add up and this creative accounting does nothing to help people in lower-income countries – those least responsible for the climate crisis – deal with the devastating impacts they are facing,” said Chiara Liguori, Oxfam GB’s senior climate justice policy advisor.

“Instead of raiding a dwindling aid budget, the UK should be setting an example and increasing climate funding by making the biggest and richest polluters carry a fairer share of the cost,” she added.

Parliamentarian Caroline Lucas, former Green Party leader, said the accounting change would “further erode any last trust in the UK as a climate leader and country of its word”.

Growing demands on aid budget

The ICAI acknowledged that the UK aid budget had come under pressure in recent years amid escalating humanitarian crises and conflicts and the rising cost of hosting asylum seekers and refugees in Britain, particularly those fleeing the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

It also noted that media reports last year had far overestimated the share of the aid budget that would need to be used for climate change projects to meet the target.

The ICAI recommended that the government craft a detailed internal plan on how the remaining portion will be met, including through which channels, and produce an annual report to demonstrate publicly how that is being done.

It also said gender considerations should be integrated into all climate finance and tracked with a marker, which so far has covered only about half of the amount.

In addition, it urged the government to monitor climate finance for small-island developing nations, fragile and conflict-affected states, and least developed countries, after raising concerns that current spending may not be fully suited to their needs.

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The accounting changes mean that more of Britain’s climate aid was translated into loans rather than grants, the review found, noting that this is less appropriate for the poorest and most vulnerable countries, many of which are highly indebted.

The FCDO spokesperson said the government would respond to the recommendations “in due course” – which the ICAI said is expected in April.

‘Playing with lives via a spreadsheet’

Tom Mitchell, executive director of the International Institute for Environment and Development, said discussions about “clever accounting by politicians” often obscured the human cost of climate change, with people in the Global South already losing their lives and incomes to weather disasters and longer-term climate pressures.

“If Britain wants to continue claiming a spot in the vanguard of the climate battle, it must do everything it can to help, and deal honestly with countries worst affected by global warming,” he said in a statement.

Zahra Hdidou, senior climate and resilience adviser at humanitarian charity ActionAid UK, urged the government to commit to new and additional climate funds in line with the urgency and scale of the climate crisis.

“No more playing with lives via a spreadsheet,” she added.

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